[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Aug was at the R0 level,
with two C-class flares in the first quarter of the 24 hour period.
There are currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3085 (N30W09, beta) and
AR3086 (S22E44, beta) exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. The unnumbered sunspot region appears stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 24-26 Aug, with a slight
chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed declined over UT day 23-Aug, ranging from 548
to 426 km/s, and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 24-Aug. There is a chance
of an increase from 25-Aug due to a small equatorial coronal
hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 10110000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 1 10200001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33210111
Mawson 8 21021015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3312 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 5 G0
25 Aug 8 G0
26 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 24-26 Aug. There is a chance of unsettled geomagnetic
conditions over 25-26 Aug due to a small equatorial coronal hole
rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair-poor Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
25 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over 24-26 Aug,
particularly during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 23 August
and is current for 24-25 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 23-Aug were mostly 15% to 25% depressed. Spread-F was
observed during local night in the Australian region. Regional
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 24-25 Aug and mostly near predicted monthly
values on 26-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 568000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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