[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:30:51 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with B-class flaring only. There are currently three numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. 
AR3085 (N32W22, beta) has been unstable, and the unnumbered region 
near S30W30 has shown rapid growth, but is not yet magnetically 
categorised. All other regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Aug. 
No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. The solar wind declined 
over 24-Aug, ranging from 457 to 351 km/s, and is currently near 
390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+5 to -1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay near background 
levels over 25-27 Aug.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Learmonth            2   21110100
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                6   33310101
      Mawson               5   32110013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1101 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     8    G0
26 Aug     8    G0
27 Aug     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 24-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
was expected over 25-27 Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Fair-poor      Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over 25-26 Aug, 
particularly during local night hours. Normal HF conditions are 
expected on 27-Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 23 August 
and is current for 24-25 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 24-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
Spread-F was observed at Brisbane and Townsville during local 
night hours. Sporadic E was observed at the Cocos Islands. Regional 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
to 15% depressed on 25-Aug and mostly near predicted monthly 
values over 26-27 Aug, as the effects from recent CMEs subside.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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