[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 August 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 23 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3085 (N30E03, beta) exhibited spot development over
the 24-hour period and was responsible for the largest C-class
flares. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 23-25 Aug,
with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed declined over UT day 22-Aug, ranging from
623 to 525 km/s, and is currently near 525 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline over 23-25 Aug, with the possibility of
an increase on 23-Aug due to the combination of a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 19-Aug, and coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 33110010
Darwin 5 33110011
Learmonth 4 32210110
Alice Springs 3 22110011
Gingin 4 32110020
Canberra 4 23020010
Hobart 4 23120010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 22120000
Casey 10 34420120
Mawson 27 55542143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3213 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 15 G0, slight chance of G1
24 Aug 8 G0
25 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with several periods of G1 at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25 Aug, with a slight
chance of G1 on 23-Aug due to the combination of a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 19-Aug, and coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 23-25 Aug.
Degraded HF conditions are possible on 23-24 Aug, particularly
during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. Spread-F
was observed during local night in the Australian region. Regional
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 23-24 Aug, and mostly near predicted monthly
values on 25 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 512000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list