[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 21 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Aug was at the R0 level,
with B-class flaring only. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk and 2 unnumbered regions. AR3078 (S24W68,
beta) has continued to decay, while AR3081 (N11W47, alpha) and
AR3084 (S11E01, beta) have been unstable. All other regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be mostly
at the R0 level over 21-23 Aug, with the chance of low level
R1 flare activity. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed, with
a narrow westward CME observed in LASCO imagery from 20/1700UT.
There are currently two small coronal holes on the western hemisphere
of the solar disk, which may increase the solar wind speed slightly
over 21-23 Aug. The solar wind speed speed on UT day 20-Aug was
elevated, ranging from 728 to 472 km/s, and is currently near
530 km/s. There was a weak shock in the solar wind at 20/1725UT,
indicating the arrival of a CME observed in the past few days.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -7
nT. Bz has been intermittently southward since 20/1927UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 21-22 Aug,
then decline, due to the combination of the arrival of recent
CMEs and small coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 32310033
Darwin 8 33310032
Learmonth 8 32310033
Alice Springs 6 32310022
Gingin 8 33210033
Canberra 7 32310023
Hobart 7 32310023
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 43310022
Casey 12 44310033
Mawson 38 73521036
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 3322 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 20 G0, chance of G1
22 Aug 25 G0, chance of G1
23 Aug 15 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 20 August and
is current for 21-22 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 20-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 and an isolated period of G1 in Mawson. There was a weak
sudden impulse observed at 20/1725UT. No significant activity
followed this impulse. Mostly G0 conditions are expected over
21-23 Aug, with periods of G1 activity possible during 21-22
Aug due to the expected arrival of recent CMEs and coronal hole
high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 20-22 Aug, particularly during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. Spread-F
and sporadic-E were observed during local night in the Australian
region. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values with continued degradation during local night
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 315000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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