[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 20 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0444UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Aug was at the R1 level
due to a single long duration M1.6 flare from AR3078(S24W56,
beta). This region showed rapid decay after 18/2000UT. A C6 flare
was observed at 19/2031UT, with a reported associated Type II
radio sweep, inferring a possible associated CME. There are currently
5 numbered regions on the disk, with small new spots appearing
at S19E42, S19E15 and N13E14. With AR3078 in apparent decay,
solar activity is now expected to be at mostly at the R0 level
over 20-22 Aug, with the chance of isolated low level R1 flare
activity. Two further southwest-directed CMEs have been observed,
associated with the M1.6 flare and an earlier C4 flare at 18/2242UT,
both from AR3078. Due to this regions now far west location only
a glancing blow is expected to reach the Earth. Any subsequent
CMEs produced by AR3078 are unlikely to be very geoeffective
as the region moves further westward toward the solar west limb.
Two small coronal holes are visible in the southern solar hemisphere
just west of solar central meridian. These two small holes may
increase solar wind speed slightly in about 3 days time. The
solar wind speed on UT day 19-Aug was elevated, ranging from
525 to 680 km/sec. A shock in the solar wind from a recent CME
was observed at 19/1702UT. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -11 nT. A sustained period of southward
Bz was observed from 19/1705UT to 19/1930UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 20-21 Aug, then decline,
due to the potential arrival of recent CMEs with a partial Earth
directed component.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 33222333
Darwin 11 33221333
Learmonth 13 33221343
Alice Springs 11 23222333
Gingin 13 33222343
Canberra 10 23222233
Hobart 10 23222233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 33234353
Casey 48 43422583
Mawson 54 35443676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 94 (Minor storm)
Canberra 87 (Minor storm)
Hobart 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23 3232 4544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 20 G0, chance of G1
21 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1
22 Aug 14 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 17 August and
is current for 19-20 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 19-Aug,with a weak
sudden impulse observed 19/1731UT. No significant activity followed
this impulse. Geomagnetic activity in the antarctic region ranged
from G0 to G4. Generally G0 conditions with periods of G1 level
activity are expected over the interval 20-22 Aug, due to the
expected arrival of recent CMEs with a partial Earth directed
component.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
21 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
22 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 20-22 Aug, particularly during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 17
August and is current for 18-20 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed during local night in the Australian region.
Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values with continued degradation during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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