[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 19 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1009UT possible lower European
M1.6 1055UT possible lower European
M1.3 1413UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Aug was at the R1 level,
with three M-class flares, an impulsive M1.3 flare at 18/1009UT,
a long duration M1.5 flare at 18/1055UT and an impulsive M1.3
flare at 18/1413. All three M-class flares were from AR3078 (S24W44,
beta-delta). There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3078 is the most complex region
and has shown decay over the 24 hour period. It was responsible
for the most significant flaring on UT day 18-Aug. A new region,
AR3084 (S11E23, beta) has appeared on the solar disk. One unnumbered
region (S22E48, alpha) is present on the solar disk and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 19-21 Aug,
with a chance of R2. A southwest-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 18/1109UT,
likely associated with the M-class flares at 18/1009UT and 18/1055UT
from AR3078. An eruption is visible in SDO imagery from 18/1009UT
and in H-Alpha imagery from 18/1012UT around S28W36. Model runs
indicate this CME contains an Earth-directed component, with
an impact on 21/0800 +/- 12 hours. Several other CMEs were observed,
but none are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 18-Aug was elevated, ranging from 517 to 623 km/s,
and is currently near 545 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +15 to -9 nT. A sustained period of southward
Bz was observed from 18/1035UT to 18/1533UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 19-21 Aug due to the combined
effects of a waning coronal hole high speed wind stream and the
expected arrival of multiple CMEs first observed on 16-Aug, 17-Aug
and 18-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 22314433
Darwin 10 22313323
Learmonth 21 23324544
Alice Springs 13 22314423
Gingin 20 33324444
Canberra 14 22314433
Hobart 19 22315533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 32 22346634
Casey 21 34433434
Mawson 62 35434586
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 72 (Active)
Canberra 79 (Active)
Hobart 102 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28 2312 2465
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
20 Aug 30 G0-G1, chance of G2
21 Aug 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 17 August and
is current for 19-20 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 18-Aug, with periods
of G1 at Learmonth and Hobart. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed at Casey, G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed at
Macquarie Island and G1-G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2
are expected over 19-21 Aug, due to the combined effects of a
waning coronal hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival
of CMEs first observed on 16-Aug, 17-Aug and 18-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 19-21 Aug, due to the combined effects of a waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival
of CMEs first observed on 16-Aug, 17-Aug and 18-Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 17
August and is current for 18-20 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed during local night in the Australian region.
Depressions of up to 30% were observed in Darwin over local night.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
with mild depressions possible for the southern Australian region
over 19-21 Aug due to the combined effects of a waning coronal
hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival of CMEs
first observed on 16-Aug, 17-Aug and 18-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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