[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 18 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1345UT possible lower European
M1.1 1453UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Aug was at the R1 level,
with two M-class flares, an impulsive M2 flare at 17/1345UT and
an M1 flare at 17/1452UT There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3078 (S24W31, beta) and
AR3082 (N28E37, beta) both showed spot development over the 24
hour period, AR3078 was also responsible for both M-class flares
on 17-Aug. All other sunspot regions are either in decay or rotating
off the solar disk. Two new, unnumbered, sunspot regions are
visible on the solar disk, one around N32E02 and one around S21E62
(alpha). Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
18-20 Aug, with a chance of R2. A southwest-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
from 17/1436UT, likely associated with the M2 flare at 17/1345UT
from AR3078. An eruption is visible in SDO imagery from 17/1348
around S24W26. Model runs indicate this CME contains an Earth-directed
component, with an impact on 20/0200 +/- 12 hours. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Several other CMEs were observed, but none
are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 17-Aug increased, ranging from 357 to 525 km/s, and is currently
near 505 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 18 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+15 to -17 nT. A sustained period of southward Bz was observed
from 17/1600UT to 17/2000UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 18-20 Aug due to the combined effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival
on 20-Aug of a CME first observed on 17-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 23222444
Darwin 14 23222443
Learmonth 23 24232554
Alice Springs 16 13222453
Gingin - --------
Canberra 15 23122444
Hobart 14 13122444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 02131444
Casey 32 46432544
Mawson 46 43223676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1201 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 28 G0-G1, chance of G2
19 Aug 20 G0-G1
20 Aug 30 G0-G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 14 August and
is current for 17-18 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 17-Aug, with periods
of G1 at Learmonth and Alice Springs. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G1 at Casey, and G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions observed at
Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance G2 are expected
on 18-Aug due to the combined effects of CME impacts and a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 19-20 Aug, with a chance of an isolated G2 period,
due to the combined effects of expected CME arrivals first observed
on 14-Aug, 15-Aug, 16-Aug and 17-Aug and a coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 18-20 Aug, due to the combined effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream and the impact of CMEs first observed
on 14-Aug, 15-Aug, 16-Aug and 17-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed during
local night at Learmonth, Darwin, Townsville and Brisbane. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with
mild depressions possible for the southern Australian region
over 18-20 Aug due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and the impact of CMEs first observed
on 14-Aug, 15-Aug, 16-Aug and 17-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 62400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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