[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 17 09:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 0758UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 2121UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Aug was at the R2 level,
with two M-class flares, the largest of which was a M5.0 flare
at 16/0758UT from AR3078 (S24W18, beta-gamma-delta). There are
currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3078 remains the most magnetically complex region and
is unstable. New sunspot regions AR3082 (N28E50, beta) and AR3083
(S25W28, beta) have both exhibited spot development in the 24
hour period. AR3074 (S16W76, alpha) and AR3080 (N18W74, alpha)
will soon rotate over the western limb. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. A new unnumbered sunspot region
recently appeared at S09E49 (alpha) and appears stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 17-19 Aug, with
a chance of R2. A southwest-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 16/0224UT,
likely associated with a C5.9 flare at 16/0139UT from AR3078.
Model runs indicate this CME contains an Earth-directed component,
with an impact early on 19-Aug. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Aug was at background
levels, ranging from 350 to 420 km/s, and is currently near 360
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3
to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 17-19
Aug due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream and the expected arrival on 17-Aug of three CMEs
first observed on 13-Aug, 14-Aug and 15-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 12101001
Learmonth 3 21111101
Alice Springs 2 12101000
Gingin - --------
Canberra 1 11011001
Hobart 2 11021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00121000
Casey 4 23211001
Mawson 12 33212105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 32 G1, chance of G2
18 Aug 28 G0-G1
19 Aug 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 14 August and
is current for 17-18 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
in the Australian region on 17-Aug, with a chance of G2 due to
the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
and the expected arrival of three CMEs first observed on 13-Aug
and 14-Aug and 15-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 18-19 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 17-19 Aug, due to the combined effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival of three
CMEs first observed on 13-Aug, 14-Aug and 15-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 14
August and is current for 15-17 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed at several Australian sites. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 17-Aug. Mild depressions
are possible for the southern Australian region over 18-19 Aug
due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream and the impact of three CMEs first observed on 13-Aug,
14-Aug and 15-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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