[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 22 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: R2 - moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.6 0159UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 21-Apr reached R2 (moderate)
with an M9 flare from region 2993 (N22E09). An associated coronal
mass ejection (CME) to the northeast could give Earth a glancing
blow on 24-Apr. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R3
(minor to strong) levels for 22-24 Apr. The solar wind speed
trended up to peak around 480 km/s, currently around 470 km/s.
The total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) peaked
around 11 nT, currently around 5 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-8 nT. The solar wind speed could be mildly
disturbed by a small coronal hole during 22-23 Apr and on 24-Apr
by the CME mentioned above.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 32322111
Darwin 10 34322111
Townsville 8 22332112
Learmonth 9 32323221
Alice Springs 7 32322111
Gingin 8 32322121
Canberra 7 22332101
Hobart 7 22332111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 22434111
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 18 34523241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3121 0223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 12 G0
23 Apr 12 G0
24 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Apr. Observed conditions briefly reached
G1 (minor) levels in Antarctica. G0 conditions are likely 22-24
Apr, with mild coronal hole effects 22-23 Apr and possible mild
CME effects on 24-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions
at high latitudes on 21 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are
expected for 22-24 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
23 Apr 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 21
April and is current for 22-24 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted
values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 14-20 UT. MUFs are expected
to be 15-25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during 22-24
Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 66900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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