[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: R1-R3 MAG:G0 ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: R1 - Minor
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.4 1325UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 22-Apr reached R1(Minor)
due to two low level M class flares which did not appear to have
associated coronal mass ejections. Both these events were produced
by solar region AR2993(N22W04). A small CME is visible in space
based coronagraphs from late 21/early 22 Apr to the southwest
possibly associated with activity from one of the small filaments
in the southwest solar quadrant, though no clear lift off is
apparent. Event modelling shows this minor CME as an Earth miss.
The pair of solar regions AR2993 and AR2994 now located near
the centre of the solar disk in the northern solar hemisphere,
still have flare potential. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at R1-R3 (minor to strong) levels for 23-25 Apr. The solar
wind speed had an overall declining trend and varied between
508/419 km/sec. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF Bt) peaked around 6 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +5/-5 nT. The solar wind speed could be mildly disturbed
on 24-Apr due to a weak glancing blow from the recent M9 flare/CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 5 22211221
Alice Springs 4 12111211
Gingin 4 22200221
Canberra 4 12011212
Hobart 4 12111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 11020211
Casey 10 34321221
Mawson 11 14322331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3333 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 12 G0
24 Apr 8 G0
25 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22 Apr. G0 conditions are likely
23-25 Apr, possible weak CME induced activity on 24-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, though degraded at
high latitudes on 22 Apr. Normal propagation conditions, with
possible degraded conditions at middle to high latitudes during
local night hours, are expected for 23-25 Apr with short-wave
fadeouts likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 70% during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 21
April and is current for 22-24 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted
values. Strong spread-F was observed at Brisbane and Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% enhanced over
monthly predicted values during 23-25 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts
are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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