[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 22 issued 2339 UT on 20 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 21 09:39:38 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: R3 (strong)
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0114UT possible lower West Pacific
M7.2 0136UT probable lower West Pacific
X2.2 0357UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.9 1253UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-Apr reached R3 (strong)
with an X2 flare from region 2992 (beyond the SW limb). Regions
2993 (N22E22) and 2994 (N14E22) both produced M1 flares (R1 - minor).
No geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R3 (minor to strong)
levels for 21-23 Apr. The solar wind speed declined from a peak
around 460 km/s, currently around 400 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) peaked around 8 nT. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-5 nT. The solar wind speed could
become mildly disturbed by a small coronal hole during 22-23
Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22110112
Darwin 3 2211011-
Townsville 5 22110222
Learmonth 6 23110213
Alice Springs 3 22100112
Gingin 6 23110113
Canberra 3 12200012
Hobart 4 13210002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11200001
Casey 7 33221112
Mawson 24 53340216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3311 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 8 G0
22 Apr 10 G1 (minor) possible
23 Apr 10 G1 (minor) possible
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20 Apr. Observed conditions reached G1-G2 (minor
to moderate) levels in Antarctica. G0 conditions are likely 21-Apr
for the Australian region, with G1 (minor) levels possible 22-23
Apr due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions
at high latitudes on 20 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are
expected for 21-23 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Apr 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 18
April and is current for 19-21 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted
values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 13-20 UT. MUFs are expected
to be 15-25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during 21-23
Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list