[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 20 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS R & G SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: R1 - minor
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/-- 2049UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: On UT day 19 Apr, solar flare activity was at R1 (minor)
levels with two M-class flares from region 2993 (N22E35) and
one from region 2992 (near the southwest limb). No new geoeffective
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. A filament eruption
to the southeast was observed from 19/1600 needs further analysis.
Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 (minor to moderate)
levels with a chance of R3 (strong) levels 20-22 Apr. The solar
wind speed peaked around 540 km/s on 19 Apr and has trended downwards,
currently around 460 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF Bt) peaked at 5 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is likely to decline
further during 20-22 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 23222000
Darwin 5 23222001
Townsville 7 23223011
Learmonth 5 23222000
Alice Springs 4 13122000
Gingin 3 22112000
Canberra 3 13112000
Hobart 5 13213000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 12123000
Casey 9 34322001
Mawson 17 44421243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1222 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 8 G0
21 Apr 8 G0
22 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 19 Apr. G0 conditions are likely
20-22 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with some mild depressions
at high latitudes on 19 Apr. Similar propagation conditions are
expected for 20-22 Apr with short-wave fadeouts likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr 70 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 18
April and is current for 19-21 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19 Apr were enhanced over monthly predicted
values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 13-20 UT. MUFs are expected
to be up to 25% enhanced over monthly predicted values during
20-22 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 545 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 670000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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