[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 18 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: R3 (strong)
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0211UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.2 0334UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 2002UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.4 2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: On UT day 17 Apr, solar activity was at R3 (strong)
levels due to an X1.1 flare at 0334 UT from newly numbered region
2994 (N14E65, Dko/beta-gamma). The flare was associated with
a type II sweep, coronal mass ejection (CME) and radio noise
bursts. There were also three M-class flares on 17 Apr from AR2993
(N22E65, Dho/beta) and AR2992 (S34W70). Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 (minor to moderate) levels with a chance of R3
(strong) flare levels 18-20 Apr. The small filament eruption
from near S45W62 at 16/2028 UT produced a slow CME but this is
not expected to be geoeffective. The CME associated with the
X1.1 flare may just graze Earth with possible arrival from late
on 19 Apr. There was a southward CME first observed in LASCO
C2 at 17/1636 UT but the origin is unclear. There is another
CME first observed at 17/2012 UT to the southwest. The solar
wind speed range was 450-580 km/s on 17 Apr, trending lower until
~~2010 UT and is now near 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-8 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated on 18 Apr due to coronal hole
wind stream effects, returning to nearer background levels over
19 Apr. There is a chance of a mild CME impact from late on 19
Apr, otherwise, settled conditions are expected on 20 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Darwin 6 12222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Gingin 7 22222222
Canberra 6 12222222
Hobart 6 12122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 12131221
Casey 12 34332222
Mawson 21 44444323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1011 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 11 G0
19 Apr 9 G0 with slight chance of G1 (minor) conditions
late in the period
20 Apr 9 G0 with slight chance of G1 (minor) conditions
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17 Apr. Weak coronal hole wind
stream effects are expected to persist on 18 Apr then subside,
with G0 conditions likely 18-20 Apr. There is a chance of a minor
(G1) disturbance from late on 19 Apr due to the 17 Apr CME that
may graze Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal on 17 Apr at all latitudes.
Propagation conditions are expected to be normal 18-20 Apr with
short-wave fadeouts likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
19 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
20 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 16
April and is current for 16-18 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17 Apr were mostly enhanced at lower latitudes
and nearer monthly predicted values at mid-latitudes. Night time
spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced 18-20 Apr. Short-wave
fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 306000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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