[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 17 09:31:32 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1456UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: On UT day 16 Apr, solar activity was at R1 level with
one low level M-class flare. There were also many C-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1 level, with a chance of
R2 level over 17-19 Apr. A large spot group or groups is now
visible in the northeast quadrant and spot development has occurred
near S31W61. The three numbered spot groups are either stable
or have shown slight growth. There is an active filament centred
near S45W20 that may erupt, while a small filament erupted from
near S45W62 at 16/2028 UT. There have been no Earth-directed
CMEs observed on 16 Apr. The solar wind speed decreased over
16 Apr from a maximum of 654 km/s. The current speed is around
540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +9/-7 nT. The solar wind is expected remain enhanced on 17-18
Apr due to coronal hole wind stream effects, returning to nearer
background levels over 19 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Darwin 4 22112111
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 5 22212211
Alice Springs 4 12102211
Gingin 6 22113211
Canberra 5 12112212
Hobart 5 22112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 11134211
Casey 20 45522232
Mawson 17 33323352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 4333 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 12 G0 with slight chance of G1 conditions.
18 Apr 10 G0
19 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 14 April and
is current for 16-17 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16 Apr. G0-G1 levels were
observed in Antarctica. There is a slight chance of G1 conditions
on 17 Apr due to weak coronal hole wind stream effects. G0 conditions
are expected on 18-19 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal on 16 Apr at all latitudes.
Propagation conditions are expected to be normal 17-19 Apr with
short-wave fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 65 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Apr 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Apr 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 16
April and is current for 16-18 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16 Apr were near monthly predicted values with
some daytime/evening enhancements to 20%. Enhancements of over
50% were observed at Darwin 06-14 UT. Night time spread F was
observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to enhanced 17-19 Apr. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 477000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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