[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 16 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTIONS: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2/-- 1101UT possible lower European
M1.9/-- 1359UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: On UT day 15 Apr, solar activity was at R1 level with
two low level M flares one which was of long duration. The origin
of these events is likely from over the northeast limb. The three
spot groups on the visible disc appear stable. Previously numbered
AR2975 and AR2976 that produced M-class flares on their transit
across the visible disc last rotation, may return on 17-18 Apr.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 16-18 Apr.
A filament erupted from near N47W05 starting around 14/1845 UT
and produced a northwest coronal mass ejection (CME). This has
been analysed as not geoeffective. There were two CMEs to the
east with origin over the east limb; these are also not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed increased over UT day
15 Apr with a range of 424-598 km/s and peaked at 2147 UT. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was
20 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-12
nT. The IMF slowly settled over the day with peak Bt now 6 nT.
The solar wind is expected remain enhanced on 16-18 Apr due to
coronal hole wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: G0 to G1
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 20 54433322
Darwin 17 44433312
Townsville 20 54433322
Learmonth 19 54433311
Alice Springs 20 54433322
Gingin 16 43432422
Canberra 20 54333422
Hobart 17 44333422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 22 33345512
Casey 24 56432222
Mawson 55 67534446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 34 3344 4654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 16 G0 with possible G1
17 Apr 12 G0 with possible G1
18 Apr 13 G0 with possible G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 14 April and
is current for 16-17 Apr. G0 to G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 15 Apr as CME effects
abated. A weak (9 nT) impulse was observed at 0735 UT in the
SWS magnetometer data. G0-G3 levels were observed in Antarctica.
Corona hole wind stream effects are expected on 16-18 Apr with
G0 to possible G1 conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal-fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at middle to high latitudes
on 15 Apr. Some minor degradations in propagation conditions
are possible at mid and high latitudes due to coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity over 16-18 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 60 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr 60 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Apr 65 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15 Apr were
near monthly predicted values to 20% enhanced at lower latitudes.
Norfolk Is., Brisbane and more southern sites were mostly depressed,
at times to 35%. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to enhanced 16-18 Apr. Mid to high latitudes may experience
some minor degradations in conditions on 16-18 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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