[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 15 09:30:45 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: R0-R1 MAG: G0-G1 ION: GREEN
ASWAS Explanation available from our homepage: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: R0 - None
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: On UT day 14 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level, with
a slow rise and fall of the GOES x-ray flux was observed peaking
at C1.3 around 13UT. The origin of this is minor enhancement
in x-ray flux is uncertain, possibly related to activity just
over the north-eastern limb of the Sun. There are four spotted
regions on the solar disc, with a new small solar region emerging
in the south western solar hemisphere, though currently none
of these regions are of significance. Previously flaring solar
regions AR2975 and AR2976 are due back to the solar north east
limb of the Sun around 17-18 Apr. Solar activity may then increase
if these regions have not decayed during there farside transit.
There are currently some signs of activity over the NE limb possibly
suggesting the return of AR2975. No new Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. A minor relatively narrow south-west directed
CME was observed in LASCO imagery at approximately 14/0229UT,
but could not be correlated with any on disk activity so is presumed
to be a far side event. The solar wind parameters became enhanced
due to what appears to be the indistinct arrival of the CME from
11 Apr. Following perhaps a small discontinuity at around 0330UT
on 14 Apr solar wind speed increased and peaked at 574km/sec
at 1311UT, then slowly declined. The north-south component (Bz)
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated only mildly
to moderately southward during intervals 1234-1446UT and 1547-2130UT.
Isolated equatorial coronal holes are visible just west of the
central meridian, which are expected to increase the solar wind
speed after 15-16 Apr. On UT day 14 Apr, the solar wind speed
varied between 574/405 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 21 nT and the IMF north-south component
(Bz) varied between +10/-13 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: G0-G1, with an isolated
G2 period
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 21 32343543
Darwin 17 32243443
Townsville 18 32343443
Learmonth 22 32344543
Alice Springs 23 32343553
Gingin 25 22344643
Canberra 17 22343443
Hobart 22 22353543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 49 22675553
Casey 19 33333444
Mawson 54 26444576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 44
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3342 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 20 G0, chance G1 early in UT day.
16 Apr 14 G0
17 Apr 20 G0 with chance of G1 periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 14 April and
is current for 14-15 Apr. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
briefly in the Australian region on UT day 14 Apr at Gingin for
one K index period, other sites ranged from G0-G1. G0-G3 levels
were observed in Antarctica. In general the activity induced
by the CME was briefer and arrived later than expected. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline today with a chance for a isolated
G1 period early in the uT day on 15 Apr. Equatorial coronal holes
are expected to increase geomagnetic activity from 16-17 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at middle to high latitudes
during local night hours on 14 Apr. HF conditions are expected
to improve today with degradations persisting at high latitudes.
Conditions should improve on 16 Apr, then become degraded to
a lesser degree at middle to high latitudes on 17 Apr due to
possible coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 50 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 14 April
and is current for 15 Apr only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 14 Apr were near monthly predicted values to slightly
enhanced. HF conditions were degraded for southern Australian
region during local night hours last night due to geomagnetic
activity induced from a CME. However, due to the brevity of geomagnetic
activity on 14 Apr, forecast moderate MUF depressions are generally
now not expected, with mild depression possible after local today
for southern region Australia only, then recovering.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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