[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 22 issued 2338 UT on 02 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 3 09:38:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0256UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.9 1356UT possible lower European
M4.3 1744UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: On UT day 02 April, solar activity was at R2 levels,
with three moderate M-class flares and multiple C-class flares.
The M-class flares were from near the west limb, associated with
AR2975 (N12W73) and AR2976 (N15W53). The longest duration M3.9
from AR2976 lasted for approximately 2 hours and peaked at 02/1340
UT. This event produced an enhancement in 10 MeV proton flux.
The 10 MeV proton flux is now on gradual declining trend. The
event also produced a fast moving CME (estimated speed of ~1600
km/s). Preliminary model run indicates that this CME may impact
earth on early UT day 04 April. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 level for 03-05 April, with a chance of R3 level
(isolated X flares). On UT day 02 April, the solar wind speed
was at moderate levels, in the range of 500 km/s to 600 km/s.
A weak shock was observed in solar wind conditions near the beginning
of the UT day (02/0018) possibly associated with 30 March CME.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) range
was 5 nT to 11 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
from -10 nT to 2 nT. IMFBz was predominantly southward during
the early part of the UT day. The solar wind parameters are expected
to remain disturbed over the next three UT days, 03-05 Apr due
to CMEs and coronal hole impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 33322341
Darwin 9 32312231
Townsville 12 43312331
Learmonth 16 43323342
Alice Springs 12 33312341
Gingin 16 43323342
Canberra 13 33322341
Hobart 15 33422342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 28 34653341
Casey 23 45422352
Mawson 85 77632385
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3244 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 15 GO with chance of G1
04 Apr 50 G1-G2
05 Apr 30 Mostly G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at G0 levels. G3 levels were observed in Antarctica. The
disturbed conditions were due to arrival of 30 March CME and
coronal hole effect The outlook for today (UT day 3 April) is
geomagnetic conditions to be at G0 level, with a chance of G1
level. On UT day 4 April, geomagnetic conditions can reach G1-G2
levels due to the arrival of the 02 April CME associated with
the long duration M3.9 flare.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 03 04 2022 0125UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Poor Poor Poor
05 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF communication conditions may be
observed on 03-05 Apr due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02 Apr were
mildly to moderately enhanced. Similar MUF conditions are expected
for the next three days. Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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