[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 22 issued 2340 UT on 03 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 4 09:40:14 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** R1-R2 ** MAG:** G0-G1 ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: On UT day 03 April, solar activity was at R0 levels,
with only C-class flares. The strongest C6.4 was from AR2976,
which is currently located at N15W71. The 10 MeV proton flux
continued on a gradual declining trend after the initial enhancement
caused by the 2 April long duration M3.9 flare. The CME associated
with the 02 April M3.9 flare is expected to arrive at Earth later
today, though most of the mass associated with the CME may be
directed away from Earth. Another CME associated with a disappearing
filament (SDO 304 03/1538) is expected to arrive on early UT
day 06 April. This event will be further investigated. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 level for 04 April, with
a chance of R3 level (isolated X flares). From UT day 05 April,
solar activity is expected to be R0 level, as most of the recent
flaring regions will soon rotate to the farside of the sun. On
UT day 03 April, the solar wind speed was at moderate levels,
in the range of 450 km/s to 550 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) total strength (Bt) range was 5 nT to 7 nT. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied from -7 nT to 2 nT. The solar wind
parameters are expected to remain disturbed over the next three
UT days, 04-06 Apr due to CMEs and coronal hole impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21101222
Darwin 4 21101222
Townsville 6 22201232
Learmonth 4 21101221
Alice Springs 5 22201221
Gingin 5 21102231
Canberra 4 21101222
Hobart 4 21101222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 21012221
Casey 17 44322343
Mawson 23 53312454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 4542 2353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 20 G0-G1
05 Apr 12 G0
06 Apr 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 3 April and
is current for 4-5 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly at G0 levels on UT day 03 April. G1 levels
were observed in Antarctica. The disturbed conditions were due
to arrival of the 30 March CME and the coronal hole effect. On
UT day 4 April, geomagnetic conditions may reach G1 levels due
to the arrival of the 02 April CME and coronal hole effects.
Conditions can again reach G1 levels on 06 April in response
to the arrival of another CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 02/04, Ended at 2235UT 02/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF communication conditions may be
observed on 04-06 Apr due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits are possible today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 2
April and is current for 3-5 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03 Apr were mildly to moderately enhanced. Similar
MUF conditions are expected for the next three days. Possible
shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 513000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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