[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 7 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 September. There
are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk, four
of them have sunspots. Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on UT days 7 to 9 September. One CME (starting around
05/1800) was observed in the available coronagraph imagery. This
CME may have a weak earthward component and will be analysed
further. On UT day 6 September, the solar wind speed was near
its background levels, it varied in the range 300-330 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were
3 to 6 nT and +4/-4 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed may
reach slightly enhanced levels on UT day 7 September due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11100212
Cocos Island 2 11100211
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 3 11100212
Learmonth 3 11100212
Alice Springs 2 11000202
Gingin 4 11100312
Canberra 2 12000101
Hobart 1 11000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01010200
Casey 6 23210212
Mawson 18 34110326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2312 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
08 Sep 5 Quiet
09 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 6 September. Predominantly quiet conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region with three unsettled, one active
and one minor storm period. For UT days 7 to 9 September, global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible
isolated unsettled periods on 7 September due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 7 to 9 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 6 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of mildly
depressed MUFs in the Northern Australian region and mildly enhanced
MUFs in the Southern Australian region were observed. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT days 7 to 9 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 83400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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