[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 6 09:30:56 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 September. There 
are currently 7 numbered regions on the visible disk, four of 
them have sunspots. Solar activity is expected to be at very 
low to low levels on UT days 6-8 September. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT 
day 5 September, the solar wind speed was near its background 
levels, it varied in the range 300-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were 4-7 nT and +/-5 
nT, respectively. The solar wind speed may reach slightly enhanced 
levels on UT day 6 September due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112200
      Cocos Island         3   11112200
      Darwin               3   11102201
      Townsville           3   11112201
      Learmonth            3   11112200
      Alice Springs        2   11102200
      Gingin               2   11112100
      Canberra             2   11112100
      Hobart               2   11112100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   01124000
      Casey                5   23212100
      Mawson              11   43322203

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2121 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep     7    Quiet
08 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region. For UT days 6-8 September, global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible isolated 
unsettled periods on 6 September due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 5 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly depressed MUFs 
were observed in the Northern Australian region during the local 
day and mildly enhanced MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian 
region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT days 6-8 September are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:   339000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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