[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 5 09:30:54 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 September. There
are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk. Solar
activity is expected to be at very low levels on UT days 5-7
September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 4 September, the solar wind speed
was near its background to mildly elevated levels. It varied
in the range of 350 km/s to 440 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2-5 nT and the north-south component (Bz) was in the
range -6/+3 nT. The solar wind is expected to slightly enhanced
levels on UT day 5 and 6 September due to the influence of coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11131111
Townsville 6 12132112
Learmonth 5 21132111
Alice Springs 4 11131110
Gingin 4 10131121
Canberra 2 10031000
Hobart 4 11131101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 10052000
Casey 9 33331112
Mawson 14 42232015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1123 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at quiet levels with one isolated unsettled period. Quiet
to unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible
isolated unsettled periods on 5 and 6 September due to coronal
hole effects. There is a remote chance of active periods during
these two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available .
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 23 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 23 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 23 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 4 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs
were observed in the Cocos Island region during the local day.
MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 5-7 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 412000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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