[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 4 09:30:56 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 September. There 
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk: 2860, 
2861, 2863, and 2864. The regions 2863 and 2864 have sunspots, 
the other regions are currently spotless. Solar activity is expected 
to be at very low to low levels on UT days 4-6 September. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 3 September, the solar wind speed was mostly 
near background levels with relatively short periods when it 
was slightly elevated, up to 420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 4-6 nT and the north-south component (Bz) was in the 
range -6/+5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly 
near background levels on UT day 4 September, then it is expected 
to increase to slightly enhanced levels on UT day 5 September 
due to influence of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern 
hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   01143111
      Townsville           3   1-------
      Learmonth            3   1-------
      Alice Springs        0   0-------
      Gingin               0   0-------
      Canberra             3   01032000
      Hobart               7   01143111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   0-------
      Casey                3   1-------
      Mawson               3   1-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep    12    Unsettled
06 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly at quiet levels with one isolated unsettled to active 
period. Very limited data are available for Antarctic region 
for 3 September. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to 
be mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods on 4 
and 6 September. Mostly unsettled conditions with a chance of 
isolated active periods are expected on 5 September due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs 
were observed in the Cocos Island region during local day. MUFs 
in the Australian region on UT days 4-6 September are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:   207000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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