[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 3 09:30:54 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 02 September. 
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk. 
Newly numbered region 2863,a beta magnetic class is the largest 
region on the visible disk. ARs 2860 and 2859 showed further 
decrease and are rotating behind the west limb. Solar activity 
is expected to be at low levels on UT days, 03-05 September with 
a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. No earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery. On UT 
day 02 September, the solar wind speed was near background levels, 
between 310-380 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT 
and the north-south component (Bz) was in the range -/+ 3 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels 
on UT days 03-04. However the solar wind speed is expected to 
increase to slightly enhanced levels on UT day 05 September, 
due to influence of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern 
hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01111100
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            3   01112210
      Alice Springs        1   01101100
      Gingin               1   01101110
      Canberra             0   00001100
      Hobart               1   00011200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012100
      Casey                5   12222120
      Mawson              12   22112253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2222 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian 
region on UT day 02 September. An isolated minor storm period 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on todays 03-04 September with 
a chance of isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
with a chance of isolated active periods are expected on 05 September 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 02 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly depressed MUFs 
observed at Cocos Island region local night. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT days 03-05 September are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:   11.1 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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