[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 21 issued 2340 UT on 01 Sep 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 2 09:40:27 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 01 September
with low level C_class flaring from AR 2860. There are currently
two numbered regions on the visible disk. AR 2860 showed further
decrease in area and magnetic complexity, it is now a Beta magnetic
class. AR 2859 remained simple and inactive. Solar activity is
expected to be at low levels on UT days, 02-04 September with
a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare from AR2860. SOHO
imagery observed a CME associated with a prominence from SW limb
around 01/0138UT, unlikely to have any earth directed component.
SDO image showed an eruption in the vicinity of AR 2860 around
01/1348UT, will be analysed as more imagery becomes available.
No other earth directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
imagery up to 01/1427UT. On UT day 01 September, the solar wind
speed was at background levels, under 350 Km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 2-5 nT and the north-south component (Bz)
was in the range -4/+ 3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
enhance over the next 24 hours due to influence of 28 August
CME activity combined with weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11121100
Darwin 3 21121101
Townsville 3 21121101
Learmonth 3 12122100
Alice Springs 3 11121101
Gingin 2 11121100
Canberra 2 10021100
Hobart 3 10131200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 00151100
Casey 6 33221101
Mawson 13 43222134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3321 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 18 Quiet to active with a chance of an isolated
minor storm period.
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day 01 September. Active periods observed in the
Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to active today, 02 September with a chance of an
isolated minor storm period due to influence of 28 August CME
activity and weak coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 03-04 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Sep 5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 01 September
were near predicted monthly values mildly depressed. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT days 02-04 September are expected
to be slightly depressed to near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 46600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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