[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 8 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 07 September- a C1.1
flare was observed from region 2866 (S18E22 at 07/23:15 UT, beta
Dkc). This flare peaked at 07/0934 UT. There are currently five
numbered regions on the visible disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at low levels on UT days 08 to 10 September with a small
possibility of isolated M-class activity. On UT day 07 September,
the solar wind speed was near its background levels, it varied
in the range 285 to 385 km/s while showing a relatively quicker
rise from 305 to 375 km/s between 12:45 and 13:55 UT. The total
IMF (Bt) and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were 1 to
10 nT and +7/-6 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed may be
expected to stay mostly at background levels for the next three
UT days (08 to 10 September) with a small possibility of minor
enhancements on 10 September due to a possible connection with
a coronal hole in the south-west region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 01122222
Cocos Island 3 -0012211
Darwin 5 11122222
Townsville 5 01122222
Learmonth 5 02122222
Alice Springs 4 01022222
Gingin 1 0101----
Canberra 4 01021222
Hobart 3 00121122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 00130011
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 19 22232246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2301 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 5 Quiet
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 07 September. Predominantly quiet conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region with four unsettled, one
active and one minor storm periods. For UT days 08 to 10 September,
global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
with possible unsettled periods on 10 September due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 07 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of mildly
depressed MUFs in the Northern Australian region and mildly enhanced
MUFs in the Southern Australian region were observed. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT days 08 to 10 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 45000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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