[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 24 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 25 10:31:18 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 October. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible disc. AR2886 (S19W15, 
Hhx/alpha) is stable and quiet, AR2887 (S27E44, Dko/beta=gamma) 
continues to produce B-class flares, and newly numbered AR2888 
(S15E68, Axx/alpha). Solar activity is expected to be low on 
25-27 October with a small chance of moderate activity. There 
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the coronagraph images. 
On UT day 24 October, the solar wind parameters were near background 
levels with a solar wind range of 313 km/s to 378 km/s, peak 
total IMF (BT) of 6 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) component 
range of +5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near 
background levels on 25 October with possible mild enhancements 
in the second half of the day due to the expected arrival of 
a slow, weak CME. Mostly background conditions are likely on 
26-27 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11011211
      Darwin               3   11110211
      Townsville           5   21121212
      Learmonth            5   12121311
      Alice Springs        2   01011211
      Gingin               2   00011221
      Canberra             2   11011201
      Hobart               4   11012311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   01022100
      Casey               12   34331222
      Mawson              11   22011253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    13    Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active 
                periods
26 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 24 October and at quiet to minor storm levels 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to 
be initially quiet on 25 October. A slow CME may arrive in the 
second half of 25 October and cause unsettled to active conditions. 
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 October 
and quiet conditions on 27 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 25-27 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 24 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% were 
observed 03-06 UT at Norfolk Is., Brisbane, Townsville and Darwin, 
and 16-19 UT at Darwin and Townsville. MUFs are likely to be 
near predicted monthly values on 25-27 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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