[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 26 10:31:16 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             102/50

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 October. A C8- and 
C4-class flares were produced by a far-side region approaching 
the eastern limb. Currently there are five numbered regions on 
the visible disc, including newly numbered AR2889 and AR2890. 
The most complex region AR2887 continues to produce B-class flares. 
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on 26-28 October 
because there is a chance of M-class flares due to flaring potential 
of AR2887 and the abovementioned far-side region. There are no 
Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. 
On UT day 25 October, the solar wind parameters were near background 
levels with a solar wind range of 310 km/s to 340 km/s, peak 
total IMF (BT) of 8 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) component 
range of +6/-5 nT. Mostly background conditions are likely on 
26-28 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11101311
      Cocos Island         3   11100310
      Darwin               4   12101311
      Townsville           4   12101311
      Learmonth            4   11001312
      Alice Springs        3   11001311
      Gingin               2   00000311
      Canberra             2   01001211
      Hobart               2   01101211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   01010100
      Casey               10   34311212
      Mawson               9   33112313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct     7    Quiet
27 Oct     7    Quiet
28 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet with one unsettled period on UT day 25 October and 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic region. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26-28 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 26-28 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to 
possible M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25 
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 25 October were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on 
26-28 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to possible 
M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    70500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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