[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 25 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 26 10:31:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: On UT day 25 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar
disc: AR2896 (Hrx-Alpha S18W71), AR2897 (Hrx-Alpha N15W56) that
have decayed and AR2898 (Dso-Beta S24E21) that is growing in
magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to be very low
on UT days 26-28 November. The large filament, that continues
to be monitored, produced a filament eruption near S25W15 around
25/0018 UT. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph data. On UT day 25 November, the solar wind speed
was between 405 km/s and 470 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was
6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-5 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be at slightly enhanced levels
on UT days 26-28 November due small equatorial coronal holes
moving into geoeffective position. Also the 24 November DSF CME
could deliver a glancing blow late on 27 November through 28
November, elevating the solar wind parameters even further.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 22100101
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 3 22101101
Townsville 3 22101101
Learmonth 4 22210201
Alice Springs 2 12100101
Gingin 2 21100201
Canberra 2 12100100
Hobart 2 12210100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 10 34322211
Mawson 15 44312224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1110 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 18 Unsettled to active with a small chance of a
minor storm
28 Nov 17 Unsettled to active with a small chance of a
minor storm
COMMENT: On UT day 25 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to active conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 26-28 November due
to coronal hole effects. Also the 24 November DSF CME could deliver
a glancing blow late on 27 November through 28 November, causing
unsettled to active conditions with a small chance of a minor
storm.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 25 November were
mostly normal with some mild degradations. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT days 26-28 November with some possible
mild degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 25 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild
depressions in the Southern Australian and the Cocos Island region
during the local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 26-28 November with some possible mild
depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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