[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 26 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 27 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: On UT day 26 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently four numbered regions on the visible solar
disc. Of significance, region 2898(S25 E07) showed some increase
in area and magnetic complexity but remained relatively quiet
over the period. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low on UT days 27-29 November with a slight chance of an isolated
M-class flare. H-Alpha and SDO images observed a disappearing
solar filament from the NE quadrant around 26/0026UT. LASCO C2
imagery observed a faint CME to NE starting 26/0125UT. It is
not expected to be geoeffective. No other Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A large filament
in the SW quadrant is monitored for any eruption. On UT day 26
November, the solar wind speed varied between 400-340 Km/s. The
peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
was mostly positive. The solar wind speed is expected to be at
slightly enhanced levels, today 27 November due small coronal
hole. Also the 24 November DSF CME could deliver a glancing blow
late on 27 November through 28 November, elevating the solar
wind parameters even further.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 00111202
Cocos Island 2 01011201
Darwin 3 00111212
Townsville 4 10211212
Learmonth 2 00111202
Alice Springs 3 10111202
Gingin 2 00011202
Canberra 2 00211102
Hobart 2 01111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 11 34422102
Mawson 3 22111101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1211 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 15 Quiet to active ith a chance of an isolated minor
storm period.
28 Nov 15 Quiet to active ith a chance of an isolated minor
storm period.
29 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 26 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to active conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 27-28 November with
possible active periods due to coronal hole effects. Also the
24 November DSF CME could deliver a glancing blow late on 27
November through 28 November, causing isolated minor storm conditions.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 27-29 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 26 November
were near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. Mildly
depressed MUFs may be observed on UT days 27-29 November with
a slight chance of a SWF.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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