[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 25 10:31:14 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: On UT day 24 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar
disc: AR2896 (Hrx-Alpha S18W59), AR2897 (Hrx-Alpha N15W44) and
the new region AR2898 (Cso-Beta S24E33). Solar activity is expected
to be very low on UT days 25-27 November. The large filament
near S25W10 continues to be monitored in H-alpha images. There
was a DSF observed in H-alpha and SDO304 images near S25E20 around
24/12UT. There was a CME towards the southeast in Lasco data
and towards the southwest in Stereo-A around 24/14UT. This CME
is most likely associated with the DSF and may have an Earth
directed component, so further analysis is required when more
coronagraph data becomes available. No other CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 24 November, the
solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 515 km/s down
to 435 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to continue declining on UT day 25 November to background
levels. Then on UT days 26-27 November the solar wind speed is
expected to increase again to slightly enhanced levels, due to
small equatorial coronal holes moving into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12220201
Cocos Island 2 11110200
Darwin 2 11111200
Townsville 5 12221211
Learmonth 3 11221200
Alice Springs 4 12220201
Gingin 3 21120210
Canberra 3 12120201
Hobart 4 12220211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12020000
Casey 21 45532322
Mawson 9 33223211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2213 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 5 Mostly quiet
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 24 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to minor storm conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 25 November. Then quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on UT days 26-27 November,
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 24 November were
mostly normal with some mild degradations. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions with some mild degradations are expected on UT days
25-27 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 24 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild
depressions in the Southern Australian region. There were also
some moderate depressions in the Cocos Island region during the
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on UT days 25-27 November with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 253000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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