[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 22 10:31:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              80/20

COMMENT: On UT day 21 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar 
disc. AR2896 (S18W21, Hsx/alpha) and AR2897 (N15W06, Hsx/alpha) 
are both stable and quiet. Previously numbered flare productive 
AR2891 is due to return on 22 November. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low on 22-24 November. No earthward CMEs were observed 
in the available satellite images. On 21 November, the solar 
wind speed range was 552 to 692 km/s and is currently near 600 
km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) component range was +/-6 nT with no sustained periods of 
southward IMF. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to decline 
on 23 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233211
      Cocos Island         7   22223310
      Darwin               8   22233211
      Townsville           8   22233211
      Learmonth           12   32234322
      Alice Springs        8   22233211
      Gingin              11   32233322
      Canberra            10   22234212
      Hobart              10   22234212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   22255321
      Casey               34   46644323
      Mawson              31   55334445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled. There remains a chance of 
                an isolated active period.
23 Nov     7    Quiet
24 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 21 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to active as the coronal hole wind 
stream effects continued. Quiet to storm conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of an isolated active 
period on 22 November. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 
23-24 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 21 November were moderately degraded 
at times, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Mildly to 
moderately degraded conditions can be expected 22-24 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov   -19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% 02-05 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values 00-01, 06-10 UT. No data available 11-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov    -5    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
23 Nov   -10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov   -10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 21 November 
and is current for 21-22 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT day 21 November were mostly 15-30% depressed. Occasional sporadic 
E was observed at Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Niue, blanketing 
the F region at Canberra 11 and 17-18 UT. Depressed conditions 
are expected to continue 22-24 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   237000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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