[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 21 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 20 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar
disc. AR2896 (S18W08, Hax/alpha) and AR2897 (N15E07, Hsx/alpha)
are both stable and quiet. Previously numbered flare productive
AR2891 is due to rotate onto the disc on 22 November. Solar activity
is expected to be very low on 21-23 November. A filament was
observed to disappear in SDO 304 images near W12 in the northwest
quadrant around 1500 UT, however it does not appear to have triggered
a CME. No earthward CMEs were observed in the available satellite
images. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed declined
to 406 km/s around 0134 UT and began to increase around 0400
UT to peak at 568 km/s. The wind speed remains around 550 km/s.
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
component range was +6/-7 nT with no sustained periods of southward
IMF. The disturbance is likely due to the arrival of the wind
stream associated with a coronal hole. Elevated solar wind speeds
are expected to subside on 23 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22223323
Cocos Island 7 12222322
Darwin 8 22223312
Townsville 10 22223323
Learmonth 10 22223323
Alice Springs 9 22223313
Gingin 9 21223323
Canberra 8 12222323
Hobart 9 12322323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 11234422
Casey 25 34643323
Mawson 22 43333354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 15 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated
Active to Minor Storm periods
22 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 20-21 Nov. On UT day 20 November, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet to unsettled as
the coronal hole wind stream arrived at Earth. Quiet to storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 21 November
with a chance for isolated active to minor storm periods as the
wind stream persists. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
22-23 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 20 November were mildly depressed. Similar
conditions can be expected 21-23 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed, although
there were some depressions to 35% before and after dawn. Spread
F was observed at Hobart 10-18 UT and sporadic E at Perth 02-08
UT, Niue 09-13 UT and Townsville 08-09 UT. Depressed conditions
are expected to continue 21-23 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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