[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 20 10:30:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 19 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. AR2896 (S18E06, Hsx/alpha) and AR2897 (N15E21. Hrx/alpha)
are both stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a low chance of C flares on 20-22 November. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite images.
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed continued to decline,
ranging between 419 km/s and 519 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-4
nT. A effects of a southern hemisphere coronal hole may arrive
earlier than what would normally be expected. Solar wind parameters
may become disturbed late on 20 November but arrival could be
delayed until later on 21 November. Elevated solar wind speeds
are expected with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11102102
Cocos Island 2 11101101
Darwin 3 11102102
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 4 11102212
Alice Springs 2 10102102
Gingin 4 11102212
Canberra 2 01102102
Hobart 3 11202102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 10102101
Casey 14 44422212
Mawson 10 32112243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 15 Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated minor
storm period.
21 Nov 15 Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated minor
storm period.
22 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 20-21 Nov. On UT day 19 November, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet. Quiet to active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet at first on 20 November. A coronal hole
high speed stream may arrive late on 20 or on 21 November and
cause unsettled to active periods with a chance of isolated minor
storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions expected on 22 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 19 November were moderately depressed
in the southern hemisphere and near normal in the northern hemisphere.
Similar conditions can be expected 20-22 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 November
were mostly 15-30% depressed. Sporadic E observed at Brisbane
09-14 UT. Depressed conditions are expected to continue 20-22
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 285000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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