[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 19 10:30:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 18 November, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There are currently four numbered regions
on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be very
low on 19-21 November with a small chance of C-class flares.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at
moderately elevated levels, though on a gradual declining trend,
as the coronal hole effect wanes. It ranged from 500 km/s to
550 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was mostly +/-3 nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards its
nominal levels, today, UT day 19 Nov. Mostly nominal solar wind
conditions are expected from UT day 20 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22110101
Cocos Island 1 12010000
Darwin 2 12100101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 21110102
Alice Springs 2 12000101
Gingin 4 22110112
Canberra 2 22100101
Hobart 2 12110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 13 44421112
Mawson 15 33332125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3133 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 18 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels. Quiet to active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels on UT days 19 and 20
November, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods. On UT
day 21 November, unsettled to active period might occur due to
the possible onset of a CIR associated with another coronal hole
reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 18 November were mostly moderately depressed
due to very low levels of ionising radiation. Mildly to moderately
depressed MUF conditions are expected to continue for the next
three UT days, 19 to 21 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 November
were mostly moderately depressed due to very low levels of ionising
radiation. Mildly to moderately depressed MUF conditions are
expected to continue for the next three UT days, 19 to 21 November,
in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 597 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 309000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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