[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 17 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 18 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: On UT day 17 November, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There are currently four numbered regions
on the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to be very low
on 18-20 November with a chance of C-class flares. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery.
On UT day 17 November, the solar wind speed was at moderately
elevated levels, ranging from 550 km/s to 650 km/s. These moderately
elevated solar wind conditions are in response to a southern
coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 and 8 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was mostly +/-5 nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline from today,
though remain at mild to moderate levels, as the coronal effect
wanes. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected from
UT day 19 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22342221
Cocos Island 5 12221220
Darwin 7 22232211
Townsville 10 22342122
Learmonth 10 22342222
Alice Springs 7 22332111
Gingin 12 31342232
Canberra 10 22342122
Hobart 10 32342111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 22263111
Casey 31 46642232
Mawson 22 44442244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3312 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 17 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet to active levels. Quiet to minor
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed
conditions are in response to a southern coronal hole effects.
Due to the continued effects of the coronal hole, quiet to unsettled
conditions may be observed on UT day 18 November. Geomagnetic
conditions may be expected to return to quiet levels on 19 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 17 November were mostly moderately depressed
due to coronal hole effects and very low levels of ionising radiation.
Mildly to moderately depressed MUF conditions are expected to
continue for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
19 Nov 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 November
and is current for 16-18 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 17 November were mostly moderately depressed due to coronal
hole effects and very low levels of ionising radiation. Mildly
to moderately depressed MUF conditions are expected to continue
for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 November in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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