[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 17 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: On UT day 16 November, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There are currently three numbered regions
on the visible disk: AR2894(S29W71), AR2895(N24W55) and AR2896(S18E44)
at 16/22:35 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low on
17-19 November with a chance of C-class flares. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery.
The previously anticipated coronal hole effects got kicked in
on UT day 16 November and have strengthened the solar wind stream.
On this day, the solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to
620 km/s by 04:20 UT and then remained enhanced, mostly between
560 and 640 km/s during the rest of the UT day. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 2 and 15 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
component range was mostly +11/-7 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain enhanced on UT day 17 November and the first half of
the UT day 18 November due the ongoing coronal hole effects.
Solar wind parameters may be expected to return to nominal values
thereafter.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 33223212
Cocos Island 5 22122211
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 11 33233222
Learmonth 10 32223322
Alice Springs 7 32222212
Gingin 10 33223312
Canberra 9 23233211
Hobart 10 33233211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 23243321
Casey 25 55542223
Mawson 21 34533432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 75 (Active)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 107 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0000 1143
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 14 Quiet to active
18 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 16 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to
minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The
disturbed conditions are in response to the southern coronal
hole effects. Due to the continued effects of the coronal hole,
quiet to active conditions may be observed on UT day 17 November
and quiet to unsettled conditions on 18 November. Geomagnetic
conditions may be expected to return to quiet levels on 19 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 16 November were mostly moderately depressed
due to coronal hole effects and very low levels of ionising radiation.
Mildly to moderately depressed MUF conditions are expected to
continue for the next three UT days, 17 to 19 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov -15 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov -5 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 0 Depressed 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 November
and is current for 16-18 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 16 November were mostly moderately depressed due to coronal
hole effects and very low levels of ionising radiation. Mildly
to moderately depressed MUF conditions are expected to continue
for the next three UT days, 17 to 19 November in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 15.0 p/cc Temp: 23300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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