[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 22 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 23 10:31:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 22 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar
disc. AR2896 (S18W33, Axx/alpha) and AR2897 (N15W18, Hro/alpha)
are both stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be very
low on UT days 23-25 November. A large filament is approaching
CMD at S30 and continues to be monitored in H-alpha images. There
was a CME towards the northwest observed in Lasco images around
21/22:36UT. This CME appears to have been produced by a region
just beyond the northwest limb in SDO171 images and is not geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data.
On UT day 22 November, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing
trend from 630 km/s down to 520 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +/-4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue declining on
UT day 23 November to slightly enhanced levels. Then on UT days
24-25 November the solar wind speed is expected to be near background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22112221
Cocos Island 2 11001210
Darwin 4 22101212
Townsville 7 22112322
Learmonth 6 22112321
Alice Springs 5 22112212
Gingin 7 22112322
Canberra 5 22102221
Hobart 5 23002221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 13002210
Casey 20 55432222
Mawson 28 54223364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3213 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 7 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov 5 Mostly quiet
25 Nov 5 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 22 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly quiet as coronal hole effects faded.
Quiet to storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on UT day 23 November. Then mostly quiet conditions are expected
on UT days 24-25 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 22 November were
mostly normal with some mild degradations. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions with some mild degradations are expected on UT days
23-25 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild
depressions in the Southern Australian region and also some moderate
depressions in the Cocos Island region during the local night.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on UT days
23-25 November with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 608 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 405000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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