[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 07 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 8 10:31:23 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 07 November, solar activity was low with only
B-class flares all from active region 2894. This region is currently
located at S29E47 and is moving towards the solar centre. There
are two other numbered regions currently on the visible disc:
AR2891 and AR2893. AR2891 will soon rotate to the far-side of
the sun. Solar activity is expected to be low on 08-10 November,
with a chance of C-class flares. We found no definite evidence
of possible CME associated with ~15-degree long filament from
near N27W15 occurring at 06/1107 UT. The CME observed in LASCO
C2 imagery and SDO AIA 171 at 07/1500 UT is a far-side event
and will not impact the earth. On UT day 07 November, the solar
wind speed ranged between 450 and 520 km/s and seems to be gradually
declining towards background level. These moderately elevated
solar winds are in response to the waning effects of CME. The
total IMF (Bt) range was 2-5 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) component
range has been +3/-1 nT and was mostly northwards throughout
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to continue a slow
declining trend as the CME effects further wane. Mostly mildly
elevated to background solar wind conditions are expected for
today, UT day 08 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 42001000
Cocos Island 3 33000000
Darwin 4 42000001
Townsville 5 42101110
Learmonth 7 52100000
Alice Springs 2 32000000
Gingin 2 31001000
Canberra 4 41001000
Hobart 3 31101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 31001010
Casey 12 44421021
Mawson 12 53222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 4323 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 07 November was initially active, and then were mostly at
quiet levels. In the Antarctic region unsettled to minor storm
levels were observed. Conditions are expected to be mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels on 08 November. Isolated active periods
are possible today, 08 November, due to moderately elevated solar
wind speed. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from UT day
09 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be normal
to fair on UT days 08-09 November with degraded conditions mostly
at mid and high latitudes. These are in response to the recent
disturbed periods. Mostly normal conditions are likely on UT
day 10 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 07 November
were moderately depressed in response to the recent magnetic
storms. The depressions were more prominent in the Southern Australian
Regions. On 08-09 November, MUFs are likely to be depressed,
however, are expected to continue a slow gradual recovery.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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