[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 21 issued 2335 UT on 06 Nov 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 7 10:35:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 06 November, solar activity was low with two
C-class flares, both from active region 2894. Region 2894 has
just rotated onto the visible solar disk. There are two other
numbered regions currently on the visible disc: AR2891 and AR2891.
Solar activity is expected to be low on 07-09 November, with
a chance of more C-class flares and a remote chance M-class flares.
Two filament eruptions were observed in the last 24 hours; first
from N00W50 at 05/2359 UT associated with an approximately 20-degree
long filament has been modelled and initial investigation indicate
that the associated CME is unlikely to impact earth. The second,
a ~15-degree long filament from near N27W15 at 06/1107 UT, is
currently being analysed for evidence of associated CME, if any,
and its impact on earth. Based on the location of the source,
any generated CME is likely to impact earth. More updates on
this event will be provided later. On UT day 06 November, the
solar wind speed ranged between 520 and 630 km/s in response
to the CME effects. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-10 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range has been +10/-4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue a slow declining
trend as the CME effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 53332322
Cocos Island 16 53332322
Darwin 15 53332222
Townsville 17 53342322
Learmonth 18 53332423
Alice Springs 16 53332322
Gingin 14 42331423
Canberra 14 43332332
Hobart 14 33341332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 18 32352441
Casey 22 54432334
Mawson 45 34433756
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1320 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 5 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 06 November range was quiet to minor storm levels due to
CME impacts. In the Antarctic region unsettled to major storm
levels were observed. Conditions are expected to be mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels on 07-08 November. Isolated active
periods are possible today, 07 November, due to moderately elevated
solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be normal
to fair on UT days 07-08 November with degraded conditions mostly
at mid and high latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are likely
on 08 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 06 November
were depressed over most Australian region due the recent geomagnetic
activity. On 07-08 November, MUFs are likely to be depressed,
though continue on a slow gradual recovery trend
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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