[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 05 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 6 10:31:11 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: On UT day 05 November, solar activity was low with two
C-class flares. Currently there are 3 numbered regions on the
visible disc: AR2891, AR2893, and AR2894. Solar activity is expected
to very low to low on 06-08 November. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 05
November, the solar wind speed ranged between 530 and 610 km/s
and seems to be trending down. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-14
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range has been +12/-2
nT. On 06 November, the solar wind speed is expected to be moderately
elevated; it is expected to return to its nominal levels by the
end of 07 November. Some enhancement may occur on 08 November
due to a possible glancing blow from the 3 November CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 14323422
Cocos Island 10 14312322
Darwin 12 24323322
Townsville 15 24323432
Learmonth 14 23323433
Alice Springs 13 14323422
Gingin 13 13313433
Canberra 9 13312322
Hobart 9 13312322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 13103432
Casey 30 46533433
Mawson 26 24213465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 42
Planetary 65 6477 6422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region on UT
day 05 November were at quiet to active levels due to CME impacts
on 03 and 04 November. In the Antarctic region quiet to storm
levels were observed. In the SWS magnetometer data for 05 November,
a weak (9 nT) impulse was observed at 0449 UT and a weak (8 nT)
impulse was observed at 1227 UT. Conditions are expected to be
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 06-08 November. Isolated
active periods are possible on 06 November. An increase in geomagnetic
activity may happen on 08 November due to a possible glancing
blow from the 3 November CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be normal
to fair on UT days 06-07 November with degraded conditions mostly
at mid and high latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are likely
on 08 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Nov 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 5 November
and is current for 6 Nov only. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 05 November were depressed by 25-45%. On 06-07 November,
MUFs are likely to be depressed following the strong geomagnetic
activity on 03-04 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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