[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 9 10:31:16 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              92/37

COMMENT: On UT day 08 November, solar activity was low with two 
low level C-class flares from region 2895(N24E50). There are 
currently three numbered regions on the visible disk. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low on 09-11 November, with a chance of 
C-class flares. A CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 08/1236UT, 
it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other Earth directed 
CMEs observed in the available satellite imagery. Small filament 
activity observed in the NW quadrant near (N30W55). On UT day 
08 November, the solar wind speed ranged between 490 and 370km/s, 
gradually declining towards background level. The total IMF (Bt) 
range was 3-5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range 
was +3/-4 nT. Mostly near background solar wind conditions are 
expected for UT days 09-11 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11012123
      Cocos Island         2   00011122
      Darwin               5   11012123
      Townsville           5   11012123
      Learmonth            5   11012123
      Alice Springs        5   11012123
      Gingin               3   00011123
      Canberra             2   00001022
      Hobart               2   00001022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000111
      Casey               13   23431233
      Mawson              17   20023246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   3000 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     7    Mostly quiet
10 Nov     5    Quiet
11 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 08 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels with some unsettled 
periods. In the Antarctic region isolated active levels were 
observed. Conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet levels 
on 09-11 November with possible isolated unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 09-11 November. Mildly degraded conditions mostly 
at mid and high latitudes may be observed today, 09 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
10 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for 8-9 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT day 08 November were near monthly predicted values to moderately 
depressed in response to the recent magnetic disturbance. MUFs 
are are expected to continue recovery to near monthly predicted 
values over the next three UT days, 09-11 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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