[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 30 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 May with several
B-class and C-lass flares from region 2824 (N18W69) with the
largest being a long duration C9 flare peaking at 28/2313UT.
An associated CME was first observed in SOHO images around 28/2312UT.
Modeling of this CME shows that the bulk will pass ahead of the
Earth, however there is a small chance of a weak shock on UT
day 01 June. The C9 flare was also associated with a type II
and type IV emissions, a proton event and a short wave fade out.
Solar activity is expected to be low today, 30 May with a chance
of an M-class flare and very low on UT days 31 May-01 Jun with
a chance of a C-class flare. On UT day 29 May,the solar wind
was mildly enhanced with speed peaking at 476 km/s, the IMF (Bt)
peaking at 8 nT and a north-south IMF component (Bz) range of
+5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background
to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 30-31 May. A small equatorial
negative polarity coronal hole could further enhance the solar
wind speed from 01 June. There is the chance that the 28/2313UT
CME may impact on the 01 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 3 01121121
Cocos Island 3 01021121
Darwin 5 11122122
Townsville 4 11121122
Learmonth 4 01122221
Alice Springs 3 01121121
Gingin 4 01121221
Canberra 3 01021121
Hobart 2 00021120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00021110
Casey 8 12331222
Mawson 6 01312222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 7 Mostly Quiet
01 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 29 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 30-31 May with possible unsettled
periods. Then quiet to unsettled levels with possible active
periods on UT day 01 June due to weak coronal hole effects plus
a weak CME that was observed late 28 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0245UT 29/05, Ended at 0520UT 29/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 30 May-01 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Niue Island region during after local dawn. For 30 May-01
Jun, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
There is a chance of a Short wave fadeout on UT day 30 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 88600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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