[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 31 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 May with a
series of weak B-class flares from regions 2824 (that has almost
rotated off the North West limb) and 2827 (Cro-Beta). The only
other numbered regions on the visible disk are 2828 (Axx-Alpha)
and 2825 that is a plage with no spots. Weak CME activity observed
in the available coronagraph images that is unlikely to have
any significant geoeffective component. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on UT days 31 May - 2 June with a chance of C-class
flares. On UT day 30 May,the solar wind speed was slightly enhanced
between 490 km/s and 385 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near background to slightly enhanced
levels on UT day 31 May. A small equatorial negative polarity
coronal hole could further enhance the solar wind speed on UT
days 1-2 June. There is the chance that the 28/2313UT CME may
deliver a glancing blow on UT day 1 June. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 30/1750UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12110001
Cocos Island 2 02110001
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 3 12120012
Learmonth 3 02120112
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Gingin 2 11110111
Canberra 1 01110001
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 16 21221046
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 0112 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 7 Mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
01 Jun 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
02 Jun 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 30 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to active
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods on UT day
31 May. Then quiet to unsettled levels with possible active periods
are expected on UT days 1-2 June due to weak coronal hole effects
plus a possible glancing blow from the 28 May CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0245UT 29/05, Ended at 0520UT 29/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 31 May. Some mild degradation in HF propagation conditions
may be observed on UT days 1-2 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian and Niue Island regions during the
local day. There were also some mild enhancements in the Southern
Australian region during the local night. MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 31 May. Some
mild MUF depressions may be observed on UT days 1-2 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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