[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 29 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 May with several 
B-class and two C-lass flares from regions 2824 and 2826 with 
the largest flare being a long duration C7 with peak at 27/2315UT 
from region 2824. A CME was observed in SOHO images around 28/0012 
unlikely to have any significant earth directed component. There 
were no other Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph 
images. A near M-class(or an M) flare is currently in progress, 
will be included in tomorrow's report. Solar activity is expected 
to be low on UT days 29-31 May with a chance of M-class flares. 
On the UT day 28 May,the solar wind speed remained slightly enhanced 
between 400-450 Km/s due to fading CME effects. The IMF (Bt) 
was mostly around 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) 
varied between -2/+4 nT, mostly northward. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be near background to slightly enhanced levels 
on UT days 29-31 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         1   11011000
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   12001000
      Alice Springs        0   01001000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               0   01001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   13101000
      Mawson               6   33101022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14   4343 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 May     8    Mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods.
31 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 28 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled 
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on UT days 29-31 May with possible unsettled 
periods on UT days 29-30 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 29-31May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    20    Near predicted monthly values
30 May    20    Near predicted monthly values
31 May    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 May were 
near predicted monthly values. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
are expected on UT days 29-31 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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