[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 28 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 81/22 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 May with a C1.4
flare at 0313 UT from region AR 2826 (Dao-Beta) and a series
of B-class flares from both regions AR 2824 (Dso-Beta) and AR
2826. The only other numbered region on the visible disk is AR
2825. There were no Earth directed CMEs in the coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be low on UT days 28-29 May with
a small chance of M-class flares for UT day 28 May, before region
AR 2826 rotates off the North West limb early on 29 May. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT day 30 May. On the
UT day 27 May, the solar wind speed was between 385 km/s and
440 km/s due to fading CME effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 16
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +15/-12 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced on UT
day 28 May as CME effects persist and then decline to background
levels on UT days 29-30 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 12 43333220
Cocos Island 9 33332210
Darwin 12 43332221
Townsville 15 43433321
Learmonth 14 43343220
Alice Springs 11 33333220
Gingin 11 43332220
Canberra 12 33433210
Hobart 11 32433210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 21 32635120
Casey 10 43322111
Mawson 35 74443333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 1001 2353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
29 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
30 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 27 May. In the Antarctic region, mostly
quiet to active levels with isolated storm periods were observed.
On UT day 28 May, mostly quiet to unsettled levels with possible
active periods are expected due to fading CME effects. Then on
UT day 29 and 30 May mostly quiet levels are expected with isolated
unsettled periods possible on 29 May. In the SWS magnetometer
data for 27 May, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0156UT
and a weak (7nT) impulse was observed at 0452UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF propagation conditions are possible
on UT day 28 May due to recent geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 29-30 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian and Niue Island regions during the
local day and some mild enhancements during the local night.
Some mild MUF depressions are possible on UT day 28 May due to
recent geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected on UT days 29-30 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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