[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 21 issued 2339 UT on 23 May 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 24 09:39:50 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 22/2136UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels on UT day 23 May
with an M1.1 flare at 23/1108 UT and multiple C-class flares,
all from active region AR 2824 (Chi-Beta). This region is currently
located near the solar centre, at N18E01. Currently there is
a second active region on the visible disc, AR 2825. There were
three CMEs in the coronagraph images, one of them is associated
with the abovementioned M1.1 flare. Based on the source location,
this CME will impact Earth and preliminary analysis indicates
that this 23 May CME will arrive on UT day 26 May around 21 UT.
There was also a filament eruption observed in SDO images around
23/1724 UT near S18W25. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance of M-class flares for the next three
UT days, 24-26 May. On the UT day 23 May the solar wind speed
continued on a declining trend from 450 km/s to 400 km/s due
to waning coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near its background levels on UT
day 24 May. Then the solar wind speed is expected to be elevated
to strongly enhanced levels near the middle of UT day 25 May
and on UT day 26 May when the first of the 22 May CMEs arrives
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12200011
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 01101110
Canberra 1 01101100
Hobart 2 01111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 5 23211111
Mawson 11 23221044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 40 Quiet to Major Storm
26 May 35 Minor to Major Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 23 May and
is current for 25-26 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 23 May. Quiet to active levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet levels with possible
unsettled periods are expected on UT day 24 May and at the beginning
of 25 May due to waning coronal hole effects. Near the middle
of UT day 25 May minor and major storm can occur due to expected
arrival of the 22 May CMEs; severe levels are also possible on
25 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
26 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 24 May. Some moderate to strong degradation in HF
propagation conditions could occur on UT days 25-26 May due to
expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Short wave fadeouts
are possible for the next three UT days 24-26 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 22
May and is current for 23-25 May. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 23 May were mostly near predicted monthly values. For
UT days 24-25 May, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values. Enhanced MUFs are expected in the second half
of 25 May. Mild to strong MUF depressions may occur on UT day
26 May due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
Short wave fadeouts are possible for the next three UT days,
24-26 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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