[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 25 09:30:08 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 24 May 
with just a series of B-class flares from active region AR 2824 
(Cki-Beta), that has started to decay after producing multiple 
M1 and C-class flares earlier. There is a second active region 
on the visible disk AR 2825 in the North East quadrant. There 
were no Earth directed CMEs in the coronagraph images recorded 
on UT day 24 May. There was a filament eruption observed in SDO 
images around 24/0427 UT near S25W20. However, no CME was visible 
due to this filament eruption. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low to low with a small chance of M-class flares for 
the next three UT days 25-27 May. On the UT day 24 May, the solar 
wind speed continued on a declining trend from 390 km/s down 
to 330 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be initially near its background levels on UT day 
25 May. Then the solar wind speed is expected to be elevated 
to strongly enhanced levels during the second half of UT day 
25 May and remain enhanced on UT days 26 -27 May when the 22-23 
May CMEs arrive at Earth. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 24/1545UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               0   11000000
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   10110000
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Gingin               0   00010000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   10010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                2   12210000
      Mawson               5   42111100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0101 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May    35    Quiet to minor storm
26 May    40    Active to major storm
27 May    20    Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods 
                possible

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 23 May and 
is current for 25-26 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet on UT day 24 May. Mostly quiet levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to minor storm levels 
are expected on UT day 25 May and active to major storms are 
possible on UT day 26 May, when the 22-23 May CMEs arrive at 
Earth. The major storms on 26 May are possible because of the 
compounding effect of multiple CMEs. Then unsettled to active 
conditions with possible minor storms are expected on UT day 
27 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
27 May      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT day 25 May with some possible enhancements. Moderate to 
strong degradation in HF propagation conditions could occur on 
UT days 26-27 May due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
26 May     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
27 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 22 
May and is current for 23-25 May. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 24 May were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
some minor depressions in the Niue Island region during the local 
day. There were also some minor enhancements in the Southern 
Australian region during the local night. Normal HF conditions 
may be expected for most parts of the UT day 24 May. Mild to 
strong MUF depressions may occur on UT days 26-27 May due to 
the expected increase in geomagnetic activity on these days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    86200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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