[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 21 issued 2335 UT on 22 May 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 23 09:35:26 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1711UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity has reached moderate levels on UT day
22 May with two M-class flares and multiple C-class flares, all
from active region AR 2824. This region is currently located
near the solar centre, at N18E14 and is currently the only numbered
region on the visible disc of the Sun. Few CMEs (at 22/0848 UT,
22/1300 UT and maybe others) were triggered as a result of these
flares. Based on the source location, some of these CMEs will
impact earth. Preliminary runs indicate that 22/0848 UT CME would
impact the earth early on UT day 26 May. Final update on these
events will be provided later. Solar activity is expected to
be low to moderate with a chance of M-class flares for the next
three UT days, 23-25 May. On the UT day 22 May the solar wind
speed continued on a declining trend, changing from 500 to 430
km/s due to waning coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked
at 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease to
background levels today, 23 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 10010010
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 3 11121111
Learmonth 3 11112021
Alice Springs 1 01011011
Gingin 3 11111121
Canberra 2 11011110
Hobart 2 00012110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 10 33322132
Mawson 16 42222154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2322 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 7 Quiet
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 40 Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 22 May. Quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet with possible unsettled
periods are expected on UT day 23-24 May due to waning coronal
hole effects. Preliminary forecast for UT day 25 May for minor
and major storms due to the possible arrival of the 22 May CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 23-24 May. Short wave fadeout is possible for the
next three UT days (23-25 May).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 7 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Niue Island region during the local night. For 23-25 May,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Short wave fadeout is possible for the next three UT days (23-25
May).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 268000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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