[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 20 09:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 May. There 
are two spotted regions on the visible disk of the Sun: 2822 
(Hax/Alpha) that is rotating off the west limb and another region 
2824 (Hsx/Alpha) that is on the North Eastern limb. There were 
no significant Earth directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph images. A small filament eruption was observed around 
1246 UT near S20W15 in SDO images but no corresponding CME signature 
was observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days 
20-22 May. On the UT day 19 May the solar wind speed was between 
330 km/s and 385 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-5 nT. There was a sudden jump 
in solar wind speed from 355 km/s to 370 km/s around 0120 UT, 
with a corresponding increase in density. This weak shock was 
most likely the arrival of the 14 May CME. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be moderately enhanced on UT days 20-21 May due 
to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream. Then the solar wind 
speed is expected to return to background levels on UT day 22 
May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21211011
      Cocos Island         3   11211011
      Darwin               4   22111012
      Townsville           4   21212012
      Learmonth            5   312110--
      Alice Springs        3   21201011
      Gingin               3   21201021
      Canberra             1   11101001
      Hobart               1   10101011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000001
      Casey                4   12301012
      Mawson               9   32400014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3432 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
21 May    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
22 May     7    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 19 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled 
levels with two active periods were observed. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with 
possible active periods on UT days 20-21 May due to coronal hole 
effects. Then mostly quiet levels are expected on UT day 22 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 20-22 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
    Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
21 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 May were 
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the 
Northern Australian and equatorial regions during the local day. 
There were also some moderate enhancements in the Southern Australian 
region during the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 20-22 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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