[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 20 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 May. There
are two spotted regions on the visible disk of the Sun: 2822
(Hax/Alpha) that is rotating off the west limb and another region
2824 (Hsx/Alpha) that is on the North Eastern limb. There were
no significant Earth directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph images. A small filament eruption was observed around
1246 UT near S20W15 in SDO images but no corresponding CME signature
was observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days
20-22 May. On the UT day 19 May the solar wind speed was between
330 km/s and 385 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-5 nT. There was a sudden jump
in solar wind speed from 355 km/s to 370 km/s around 0120 UT,
with a corresponding increase in density. This weak shock was
most likely the arrival of the 14 May CME. The solar wind speed
is expected to be moderately enhanced on UT days 20-21 May due
to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream. Then the solar wind
speed is expected to return to background levels on UT day 22
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21211011
Cocos Island 3 11211011
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 4 21212012
Learmonth 5 312110--
Alice Springs 3 21201011
Gingin 3 21201021
Canberra 1 11101001
Hobart 1 10101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 0 10000001
Casey 4 12301012
Mawson 9 32400014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3432 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
21 May 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
22 May 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 19 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled
levels with two active periods were observed. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
possible active periods on UT days 20-21 May due to coronal hole
effects. Then mostly quiet levels are expected on UT day 22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 20-22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 May were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Northern Australian and equatorial regions during the local day.
There were also some moderate enhancements in the Southern Australian
region during the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 20-22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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