[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 19 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 18 May. There are now
two spotted regions on the visible disk of the Sun: 2822 (Hax/Alpha)
is approaching the North Western limb and new region 2824 (Cao/Beta)
that has just appeared on the North Eastern limb. AR2824 produces
several low level B-class flares and a C1.1 flare at 0209 UT.
Weak CME activity observed likely associated with the flare activity
in the Lasco coronagraph images starting at 0248 UT. However
these weak CMEs are unlikely to be geoeffective. There were no
other CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three
UT days 19-21 May. On the UT day 18 May the solar wind speed
was between 355 km/s and 400 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 10
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-9 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced on
UT days 19-21 May due to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
The slow 14 May CME could still arrive early on 19 May but only
weak effects are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 7 23322200
Cocos Island 6 23321100
Darwin 6 23222101
Townsville 9 23333201
Learmonth 6 23223100
Alice Springs 6 23222200
Gingin 6 22223200
Canberra 7 23322200
Hobart 7 -3322200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 11 13443200
Casey 8 33322200
Mawson 21 56422110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1121 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 20 Quiet to active with a possible isolated minor
storm period
20 May 15 Quiet to active
21 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 18 May and
is current for 19 May only. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 18 May. Unsettled periods
were observed early in the UT day associated the IMF Bz component
with sustained southwards orientation. In the Antarctic region
mostly quiet to active levels with one storm period were observed.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
to active with a possible isolated minor storm period on UT day
19 May. Then quiet to unsettled levels with possible active periods
are expected on UT day 20 May. This disturbance is due to coronal
hole effects plus the possible arrival of a weak CME that occurred
on 14 May. Then quiet to unsettled levels are expected on UT
day 21 May as coronal hole effects fade.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 19-21 May with some possible mild to moderate degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 May were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Niue Island Region occurring during the local day. There were
also some moderate to major enhancements in the Southern Australian
region during the local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 19-21 May with some possible mild to
moderate depressions due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 75000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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